How to win in Lotto

Not Exactly. I’m not about to give you the winning numbers for tomorrow’s draw. I’ll just lay out some of my observations on the winning numbers of the Philippine Lotto. What inspired me is this system which I beat and it so happened that I thought of a way of how to earn from it. There’s nothing perfect in beating the system. There is still that element of chance and up to now I am able to beat/cheat the system once in every three to four instances.

I then told myself, if this system can be beaten, why not other systems. So I then thought of the color game in the perya where you have 3 dice and 6 colors per dice. All three dice will roll out. If your color shows up in one out of the three dice, you’ll get back your bet, if two out of the three shows your color you’ll get double, if thrice, then thrice your bet. I then computed that there is a 42.13% chance that you can get back your bet every game on the average very close to 50%. Pretty good chance and you have a 6% chance that your color will show up in two dice. So the trick is just start small, bet in every game twice in your previous bet and by the time your color shows up on two dice, quit the game and go home. If my math is correct, you will always go home winning it.

Now let’s go back to lotto. Fortunately the PCSO has a record of all winning numbers on their website. I downloaded all winning numbers and by using excel i plotted the results and found out one peculiar thing PCSO doesn’t tell us. For one instance, that is for one draw, the statistics don’t really matter because any combination can come up. But will you allow yourself to bet 01-02-03-04-05-06 in the regular 6/42 lotto. I bet not because PCSO may say that all combinations (that is 42Combination6 at a time) have a 1/5245786 chance of winning, some combinations have lesser chances of coming up in the draw, based on statistics.

philippinelotto

I used Excel in the figure above. It has a total of 343 winning combinations since 8/20/2005 to 12/30/2008 and only 197 total winners. This is only for the regular 6/42 game which is played every Tuesday and Saturday. The first column shows the numbers. The columns shows the order of draw. Column A shows the first ball drawn up to column F which is the last ball drawn. The last column shows the number of times the numbers showed up since 2005. The items highlighted in red are the ones which showed up the most per column.

The trend is very obvious. There is a larger chance that a single digit number will show up in the first ball and a large valued digit will show up in the last ball. and each ball from second to fifth have their own biases on which range of numbers to pick from.

Again, you can use this in your next set of numbers to bet but this stats only show things in the long run and each draw is independent of the one before and after it. But still, how come PCSO didn’t tell us that we have a larger chance of winning if we chose our numbers spreadout from from digits 1 to 42 for Lotto, 1 to 45 for Mega Lotto and 1 to 49 in Super Lotto.

May I ask you again, if you were only allowed to choose between  A or B to bet in the next game, which one will you pick?

A) 01-02-03-04-05-06

B) 01-07-14-21-35-42

These are just observations.

About these ads

20 comments

  1. A) 01-02-03-04-05-06
    B) 01-07-14-21-35-42

    My answer is that both have the exactly the same odds of being drawn as the winning numbers (assuming all conditions are ideal). 01-02-03-04-05-06 appears only as being unlikely because of the pattern we can draw from it. But the fact is, the numbers are just arbitrary. If we assign colors to these numbers instead, then we won’t get misled. Ir if we juggle up the numbers, then the sequence won’t mean anything anymore.

    Regarding your tabulated historical data, most of PCSO data probably show sequence starting with the lowest number in the combination, rather than the first number drawn. This would explain why the first column have mostly low numbers. Well, that’s not unlikely, since you would have less combinations if your lowest number is 40, than if your lowest number is 1. A few data are not in increasing sequence, though, and that explains why you have instances 42,41,40, etc, even in the first column.

    Looking at the data, in fact, everything before July 1, 2006 are ordered lowest to highest (not according to number drawn).

    I’ve duplicated your table based on the PCSO data, and here’s what I did: I averaged all data from each column. All columns A-F have a mean of 8.16667. What the significance? Hey, that’s 343/42! 343, being the total number of draws between 8/20/2005 to 12/30/2008. Averaging the freqency column, I got 49. That’s 343*6/42. What does this mean then? That each number has the same likelihood to get drawn.

    Will I bet on 1-2-3-4-5-6? Probably. Just as I would any number combination that suits me the day I’m going to place my bet.

  2. Kaiser Fernandez · ·

    As you can see, this post was done with the assumption that the data was faithful with the real lotto results taking into consideration with the order of the draw. I checked the data and you’re right, before July, everything was ascending, thanks for pointing that out. :-)

  3. No prob. I was kind of reminded of the times when we also bet on the colored dice at a local perya, hehe. Beto beto yata ang tawag dun. And yes, I computed the odds also. Assuming it is fair and not rigged, you have better slightly better odds than the bank, meaning in the long run, you will earn some even if you don’t use your technique.

    Your technique is actually effective for any game that involves odds, even if the odds are greater against you. However, you not to have a great deal of money if the odds are great against you, because the increase is exponential. In casinos, some games have bet cielings, so you don’t get to recover your losses if you don’t win after some deals.

    BTW, are you also from Pisay? I saw some of your other blog posts.

  4. Kaiser Fernandez · ·

    Yeah batch 04! I guess it’s in our blood to solve problems just for the sake of it… Are you also from pisay?

  5. Yup. Graduated way back 1990, hehe.

  6. “If your color shows up in one out of the three dice, you’ll get back your bet, if two out of the three shows your color you’ll get double, if thrice, then thrice your bet. I then computed that there is a 42.13% chance that you can get back your bet every game on the average very close to 50%”

    Hi! The search for a mathematical computation for color game odds led me here to your blog.

    One thing I noticed, isn’t it if your color shows up in one of the dice, you are paid even money on top of your bet, and not just getting your bet back? At any rate, it may have been just a slight error, but what I’m interested is how did you come about with the 42.13% chance? Just curious, my math has become rusty

    On a side note, the Martingale betting system (doubling up every loss) can really be an effective strategy in color games.

  7. This is what I got…

    The probability of rolling zero of a specific number is (5/6)^3 = 125/216.
    The probability of rolling one of a specific number is 3*(1/6)^1*(5/6)^2 = 75/216.
    The probability of rolling two of a specific number is 3*(1/6)^2*(5/6)^1 = 15/216.
    The probability of rolling three of a specific number is (1/6)^3 = 1/216.
    The player’s edge is thus (125/216)*(-1) + (75/216)*(+1) + (15/216)*(+2) + (1/216)*(+3) = -17/216 =~ -7.780%.

  8. MGA PARDS,

    OK LAHAT ANG MGA SINABI NYO..ETO LANG ANG MASASABI KO AND TRY TO CONSIDER THIS…

    PRE-DRAW: IPAPAKITA ANG MGA BOLA SA MALETA. TITIMBANGIN. IPAPAKITA ANG MGA MAKINA.TAPOS NUN, BOBOLAHAIN NA. OK. MAY LUMABAS NA ANIM (6) NA BOLA.

    HANGGANG DOON LANG. IPINAKITA BA SA MGA PANEL DON – NA ANG MGA NATIRANG BOLA AT ITO’Y ILAGAY NILA ULI SA MALETA, NA ANG MGA BLANKO AY YUNG MGA LUMABAS SA TAMBIOLO?

    HINDI DIBA? PARANG MAGIC. KUNWA IPAPAKITA NA WALANG MGA IBANG DAANAN ANG KAHON. PUMASOK ANG TAO. SINAKSAK ANG KAHON. BIGLANG LUMABAS SA LIKOD NG KURTINA NG STAGE ANG TAONG KUNWANG PUMASOK SA KAHON. PAANONG NANGYARI YUN? E DUPLIKADO SILA.

    GANON DIN SA LOTTO. … CORRECT ME IF I’M WRONG NA time ni NBI Dir. Lim e nag-imbestiga at sumaksi sa isang raffle… tapos tiket pa niya ang nanalo ng 1st price…

    yun lang mga repapips….

  9. may winning numbers kb s jueteng hehehehehe.

  10. KOREK KA DYAN PARDZ

  11. In SHORT GINUGOYO LNG NG PCSO LAHAT NG TUMATAYA… SAD..

  12. lahat ng tumataya sad :( sana manalo kami :(

  13. Sana naman manalo nadn ako hehehe

  14. sana ako din manalo amp:))

  15. Sana ako din

  16. Hirap manalo. Sana ako na ang next na manalo. I need it badly

  17. Unlucky at lotto? maybe there’s a missing luck factor or an angel of good luck, check out passyourluck.blogspot.com

  18. Aq s isa s nnlo.22o nmn lhat , kht s huetng lgi rin aq nnlo wnt mob mnlo tel me wat combintion number lumabas s den I tell u d next

  19. lotto is a game of luck nobody can predict what will be the next winning numbers if hindi mina-manipulate ang game.

  20. it is a game of chance. you may win at sure na matatalo madalas.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

%d bloggers like this: